Two key properties of covariance functions are stationarity and monotony .

We propose non-stationary spectral kernels for Gaussian process regression by modelling the spectral density of a non-stationary kernel function as a mixture of input-dependent Gaussian process frequency density surfaces. We solve the generalised Fourier transform with such a model, and present a family of non-stationary and non-monotonic kernels that can learn input-dependent and potentially longrange, non-monotonic covariances between inputs. We derive efficient inference using model whitening and marginalized posterior, and show with case studies that these kernels are necessary when modelling even rather simple time series, image or geospatial data with non-stationary characteristics.

The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular statistical technique for stochastic function approximation and uncertainty quantification from data. GPs have been adopted into the realm of machine learning in the last two decades because of their superior prediction abilities, especially in data-sparse scenarios, and their inherent ability to provide robust uncertainty estimates. Even so, their performance highly depends on intricate customizations of the core methodology, which often leads to dissatisfaction among practitioners when standard setups and off-the-shelf software tools are being deployed. Arguably the most important building block of a GP is the kernel function which assumes the role of a covariance operator. Stationary kernels of the Mat\'ern class are used in the vast majority of applied studies; poor prediction performance and unrealistic uncertainty quantification are often the consequences. Non-stationary kernels show improved performance but are rarely used due to their more complicated functional form and the associated effort and expertise needed to define and tune them optimally. In this perspective, we want to help ML practitioners make sense of some of the most common forms of non-stationarity for Gaussian processes. We show a variety of kernels in action using representative datasets, carefully study their properties, and compare their performances. Based on our findings, we propose a new kernel that combines some of the identified advantages of existing kernels.

The Upper Indus Basin, Himalayas provides water for 270 million people and countless ecosystems. However, precipitation, a key component to hydrological modelling, is poorly understood in this area. A key challenge surrounding this uncertainty comes from the complex spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation across the basin. In this work we propose Gaussian processes with structured non-stationary kernels to model precipitation patterns in the UIB. Previous attempts to quantify or model precipitation in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalayan region have often been qualitative or include crude assumptions and simplifications which cannot be resolved at lower resolutions. This body of research also provides little to no error propagation. We account for the spatial variation in precipitation with a non-stationary Gibbs kernel parameterised with an input dependent lengthscale. This allows the posterior function samples to adapt to the varying precipitation patterns inherent in the distinct underlying topography of the Indus region. The input dependent lengthscale is governed by a latent Gaussian process with a stationary squared-exponential kernel to allow the function level hyperparameters to vary smoothly. In ablation experiments we motivate each component of the proposed kernel by demonstrating its ability to model the spatial covariance, temporal structure and joint spatio-temporal reconstruction. We benchmark our model with a stationary Gaussian process and a Deep Gaussian processes.

Robotic Information Gathering (RIG) is a foundational research topic that answers how a robot (team) collects informative data to efficiently build an accurate model of an unknown target function under robot embodiment constraints. RIG has many applications, including but not limited to autonomous exploration and mapping, 3D reconstruction or inspection, search and rescue, and environmental monitoring. A RIG system relies on a probabilistic model's prediction uncertainty to identify critical areas for informative data collection. Gaussian Processes (GPs) with stationary kernels have been widely adopted for spatial modeling. However, real-world spatial data is typically non-stationary -- different locations do not have the same degree of variability. As a result, the prediction uncertainty does not accurately reveal prediction error, limiting the success of RIG algorithms. We propose a family of non-stationary kernels named Attentive Kernel (AK), which is simple, robust, and can extend any existing kernel to a non-stationary one. We evaluate the new kernel in elevation mapping tasks, where AK provides better accuracy and uncertainty quantification over the commonly used stationary kernels and the leading non-stationary kernels. The improved uncertainty quantification guides the downstream informative planner to collect more valuable data around the high-error area, further increasing prediction accuracy. A field experiment demonstrates that the proposed method can guide an Autonomous Surface Vehicle (ASV) to prioritize data collection in locations with significant spatial variations, enabling the model to characterize salient environmental features.

Point process data, consisting of sequential events with timestamps and associated information such as location or category, are ubiquitous in modern scientific fields and real-world applications. The distribution of events is of great scientific and practical interest, both for predicting new events and understanding the events' generative dynamics (Reinhart, 2018). To model such discrete events in continuous time and space, spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) are widely used in a diverse range of domains, including modeling earthquakes (Ogata, 1988, 1998), the spread of infectious diseases (Schoenberg et al., 2019; Dong et al., 2021), and wildfire propagation Hering et al. (2009). A modeling challenge is to accurately capture the underlying generative model of event occurrence in general spatio-temporal point processes (STPP) while maintaining the model efficiency. Specific parametric forms of conditional intensity are proposed in seminal works of Hawkes process (Hawkes, 1971; Ogata, 1988) to tackle the issue of computational complexity in STPPs, which requires evaluating the complex multivariate integral in the likelihood function. They use an exponentially decaying influence kernel to measure the influence of a past event over time and assume the influence of all past events is positive and linearly additive. Despite computational simplicity (since the integral of the likelihood function is avoided), such a parametric form limits the model's practicality in modern applications. Recent models use neural networks in modeling point processes to capture complicated event occurrences. RNN (Du et al., 2016) and LSTM (Mei and Eisner, 2017) have been used by taking

Gaussian processes are Bayesian non-parametric models used in many areas. In this work, we propose a Non-stationary Heteroscedastic Gaussian process model which can be learned with gradient-based techniques. We demonstrate the interpretability of the proposed model by separating the overall uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (model) uncertainty. We illustrate the usability of derived epistemic uncertainty on active learning problems. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model with various ablations on multiple datasets.

Gaussian process regression is a widely-applied method for function approximation and uncertainty quantification. The technique has gained popularity recently in the machine learning community due to its robustness and interpretability. The mathematical methods we discuss in this paper are an extension of the Gaussian-process framework. We are proposing advanced kernel designs that only allow for functions with certain desirable characteristics to be elements of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) that underlies all kernel methods and serves as the sample space for Gaussian process regression. These desirable characteristics reflect the underlying physics; two obvious examples are symmetry and periodicity constraints. In addition, non-stationary kernel designs can be defined in the same framework to yield flexible multi-task Gaussian processes. We will show the impact of advanced kernel designs on Gaussian processes using several synthetic and two scientific data sets. The results show that including domain knowledge, communicated through advanced kernel designs, has a significant impact on the accuracy and relevance of the function approximation. Gaussian processes (GPs) [14] provide a powerful mathematical framework for function approximation from data. The associated technique is generally referred to as Gaussian process regression (GPR). GPs are flexible, robust, non-parametric and naturally include uncertainty quantification.

The generalization performance of kernel methods is largely determined by the kernel, but common kernels are stationary thus input-independent and output-independent, that limits their applications on complicated tasks. In this paper, we propose a powerful and efficient spectral kernel learning framework and learned kernels are dependent on both inputs and outputs, by using non-stationary spectral kernels and flexibly learning the spectral measure from the data. Further, we derive a data-dependent generalization error bound based on Rademacher complexity, which estimates the generalization ability of the learning framework and suggests two regularization terms to improve performance. Extensive experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and confirm our theoretical results.

Spectral mixture kernels have been proposed as general-purpose, flexible kernels for learning and discovering more complicated patterns in the data. Spectral mixture kernels have recently been generalized into non-stationary kernels by replacing the mixture weights, frequency means and variances by input-dependent functions. These functions have also been modelled as Gaussian processes on their own. In this paper we propose modelling the hyperparameter functions with neural networks, and provide an experimental comparison between the stationary spectral mixture and the two non-stationary spectral mixtures. Scalable Gaussian process inference is implemented within the sparse variational framework for all the kernels considered. We show that the neural variant of the kernel is able to achieve the best performance, among alternatives, on several benchmark datasets.